Introduction
People around the globe are worried that population growth is dangerously
pressing on the food supply and that there will not be enough food to feed
the large global population in the future. Pessimists say that there will
be difficulties expanding agricultural land, water supply, crops, and controlling
pests. They do not think that current levels can continue in many countries.
Optimists say that there are low crop yields currently and many inefficiencies
and much more room to grow. There is literature on possible disasters arising
from population growth even though it is not based on anything substantial.
Most of the literature is based on outdated theories that do not look at
previous history.
Population growth versus food supply is a long standing debate, which was
made popular two centuries ago when Malthus started proposing new theories
about population growth. Malthus' initial theory showed that population
growth would always press against the availability of food supply. However,
Malthus ultimately changed his view that population would grow past food
supply and came to agree with the view that there would be continuing improvement
(Johnson, 1997, 1)
Many economists now agree that there are no major obstacles to continued
increase in food supply so long that governments have economic policies
that produce and improve new technology and invest in research and development
of human resources (Bongaarts 499). It is very important that countries
are open to world markets and have political stability. There are very few
indications that we are indeed losing the race between population growth
and food supply when looking at what has happened in recent history with
the extremely large increase in population.
This paper is divided into five sections. The first section will examine
trends in the past fifty years of food supply and population growth. The
second section will discuss the importance of technology and knowledge that
affect the returns of food supply. The third section will explore the impact
of governmental policies on the supply of food to different countries. The
fourth section will present the outlook for the next couple of decades.
The final section will summarize and bring together the paper.
Trends in the Past Fifty Years
The past three decades have disproved the contention that growth of world
demand for food will outpace growth of supply and shows that there will
in fact be continued improvement in per capita food consumption in developing
countries. Per capita food consumption has increased in the past two centuries
while population has grown at its most rapid rate in the recorded history
of the world (Johnson, 1997, 3). Rapid population growth in developing economies
began in 1950 after World War II, and exceeded 2 percent for three decades
(Johnson, 1997). There was a large drop in mortalities that led to this
large increase in population growth. Life expectancy is high today because
of the improvement in the availability of food, which leads to better child
nutrition and fewer deaths of children. It is not that older people are
living longer because of the availability of food; rather, fewer children
are dying young due to malnutrition (Smith, 2001).
People are actually eating more even though there are more people; a smaller
portion of the world's population today are undernourished than in previous
times (Kravdal, 2001, 105). From 1961 to 1990, the daily caloric supply
increased by 28 percent and average availability is well above the average
daily requirements for developing countries (Johnson, 1997, 8). The number
of malnourished individuals has declined. Poverty and not inadequate food
production has the main cause of malnutrition. Increased access to clean
water and improved sanitation have contributed more than increased availability
of food to decline in infant and child mortality (Johnson, 1997, 9). This
shows that food availability is not the losing factor in the race. Instead,
global poverty and inequality is a subject that needs to be addressed as
well.
Between 1962 and 1989, population of the developing world grew by 84 percent
and per capita consumption grew by 27%. Therefore, total food consumption
grew by 134 percent. This huge growth in total food consumption could happen
due to an increase in several of the supply factors. The proportion of cultivated
land, the cropping frequency, and the crop yield all increased greatly during
this time and it was all due mainly to the Green Revolution and increases
in knowledge and technology, which will all be discussed later. The per
capita income growth of the developing countries exceeded that of the developed
countries during this time. Real per capita incomes have been highest during
periods of rapid population growth (Johnson, 1997, 4). Per capita income
growth leads to a higher availability of food supply.
Limits to growth do exist because there can only be so much growth in crop
yield and cropping frequency, but most countries are sufficiently far from
them that they are not yet affected. The limits to growth depend on the
technological advancements of the future, but they are not visible in empirical
evidence of the past fifty years.
Knowledge and Technology: Effect on Diminishing Returns
Food supply was an important factor in limiting population growth for many
centuries, but in the past two centuries in the industrial countries and
in the 20th century in the developing countries has it stopped being important.
In addition, expectations of the classical economists with respect to the
role that land would play in limiting food production were valid in the
19th century but no longer in the 20th century (Johnson, 2002, 159). Population
growth contributes to increased knowledge because as population increases
there are more people who are capable of creating knowledge and there is
a greater benefit of creating new knowledge. Increases in knowledge lead
to an increase and improvement in technology, leading to substitutes for
natural resources such as land (Johnson, 2002, 161). Because the rate of
technological advancement increases with population and capital accumulation
increases with population then the relative importance of natural resources
will continue to decline as population and real per capita incomes increase.
Due to advancements in knowledge, substitutes for land have been developed
at low costs. (Johnson, 2002, 162) This is the reason that Britain was able
to become a net grain exporter by the end of the 20th century. The change
in technology changes the notion of diminishing returns. A good example
is in the United States when the tractor replaced horses and mules and freed
up the land and resources needed to produce feed for draft animals (Johnson,
2002, 165). Meeting the food demands of an additional 30 million people
in 1950 from 1920 was accomplished by the elimination of draft animals on
farms, which used up lots of grain. Improvements in knowledge and technology
since beginning of 19th century have increased the productivity of labor
more than that of land.
Not only were there substitutes for people and animals, but there were also
advancements in technology that lead to an increase in productivity of land
such as fertilizers, pesticides, and new seed varieties that were better
for growing. Lots of investments were put into the agricultural research
and development of these new technologies.
The real prices of farm output have decreased over the past century. The
changes in production have made it possible to produce more grain and to
do so at lower real costs. Labor savings or increases in the average product
of labor were made possible because of direct substitutes for labor that
have been discovered like the tractor, development of new varieties of pest
controls, and the higher level of education of the farm operators and workers.
These three types of development contribute to the increases in the average
and marginal products of labor over the last two centuries (Johnson, 2002,
167).
The structure of farm inputs has changed drastically over the past half
century. Farm labor, land and management now provide a smaller share of
total inputs. The number of farm workers has declined significantly. However,
there was an increase in knowledge and incomes during this time for the
farmer. The farmer had to know how to use the technology instead of just
manual labor. The large decrease in real prices of farm output matches the
improvement in productivity, especially the large increase in returns to
farm labor (Johnson, 2002, 168). Land's importance has diminished, but it
does still remain significant. It is important for owners to maintain the
productivity and value of their land.
Governmental Policies
The rate of population growth is a relatively unimportant factor in determining
well-being of nation's people compared to other factors such as policies
of a government (Johnson, 1997, 6). Socialist countries that were not always
socialist can be looked at to explore how government policies affect per
capita income growth which in turn affects the food supply. In the case
of North Korea and South Korea, different rates of growth were achieved
in the socialist and market economies that were once part of the same country.
The difference in these two countries points towards the importance of governmental
policies and institutions rather than the importance of the population growth
rate. Openness to world markets, political stability, and education on economic
growth are extremely important. Trade, for example, is very important in
the supply of food. The rise in food trade from developed countries has
reduced the pressure to expand arable land areas (Bongaarts 495).
Limits to growth in food supply could be approaching but there are many
offsetting factors that the government policies can influence. For example,
raising yields by a given amount is more difficult when yields are already
high; however, a government can offset this effect by giving subsidies to
farmers (Bongaarts, 1996, 496). There are many policies that a government
can start in order to counter problems of food supply in a specific country.
Trade is extremely important. In fact, the increase in food trade from developed
countries has been a major factor in reducing the need to expand arable
land areas. Another important aspect is the environmental concern of the
government. Governments are trying to conserve forests and other natural
resources, which has prompted the government to declare specific areas nature
reserves that are off-limits to farmers. Because of these policies, farmers
have less land to use and cannot expand their production as much. If these
governments want to keep as many areas as nature reserves as they can, they
will have to rely on trade and increased yields of crops in the future.
Outlook of Future
A very large increase in agricultural output will be needed in the future
to support population of a projected 9.8 billion in 2050 (Bongaarts 483).
The growth rate of demand for food in the next decade and a half, however,
will be less than the growth rate from 1960 to 1990 because the population
growth rate is slower than for the previous three decades (Johnson, 1997,
11). There is no evidence so far of a slowdown in the rate of growth of
per capita food production in the developing countries. It is likely that
the supply of food over the next two to three decades will increase at least
as fast as the demand for food and maybe even faster leading to a continued
decline in some agricultural prices.
Some people are worried that China will starve the world with its grain
consumption in the future because they have put emphasis on the fact that
world per capita grain production has declined since 1984. However, the
EU, US, and Japan followed policies designed to limit the production of
grain and the demand for grain decreased shown by decreasing prices. In
any case, people do not live by grain alone so it is not as huge of a factor
as the press makes it out to be. Other foods have been given emphasis in
diets as countries have improved their development. In addition, even though
total grain production decreased, per capita grain production in the developing
countries increased by 9 percent in the 1980s (Johnson, 1997, 13). Policies
and institutions are more important than population growth rates in this
case. Most countries have not come even close to achieving maximum efficient
use of their agricultural resources. Benefits of agricultural research are
being recognized and there have been increases in investment in China and
other large countries in recent years. China may emerge as significant importer,
but central and Eastern Europe will become major grain exporters (Johnson,
1997, 16).
Conclusion
There is little evidence that we are indeed losing the race between population
growth and food supply, but it does not mean that the future will not be
problematic. The future will probably we somewhere in between the pessimists'
claims and the optimists' claims. The future will be hard with the large
population; however with the increase in people comes an increase in knowledge
and there will be continued investment in research and development that
will allow for more productive means to supply food. There have been many
adverse affects to the environment due to the development of new technologies,
such as green house gases, but future governmental policies and investment
in research and development of better technology will hopefully stop the
harm being done to the environment and will make even more efficient ways
of producing and delivering food across the globe.
Bongaarts, John, (1996), "Population Pressure and Food Supply in the Developing World", in Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No 3, September 1996, pp. 483-504.
Johnson, D. Gale, (1997), "On the Resurgent Population and Food Debate", in the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 41, 1997, pp. 1-17.
Johnson, D. Gale, (2002), "The Declining Importance of Natural Resources: Lessons From Agricultural Land", in Resource and Energy Economics, vol. 24, pp. 157-171.
Kravdal, Oystein (2001), "Has Population Growth Restricted Improvements in Food Availability per Head, 1970-95?" Population Studies v55, n2 (July 2001): 105-117.
Smith, Lisa Catherine and Lawrence Haddad, (2001), "How Important is Improving Food Availability for Reducing child Malnutrition in Developing Countries?" in Agricultural Economics, vol. 26, (2001), pp. 191-204.