Introduction:
At the end of the 18th century Malthus wrote, "An Essay on the Principle
of Population." In it, he predicted that the world's population would
outgrow the food supply by sometime in the middle of the 19th century resulting
in a devastating shortage. Although his apocalyptic prediction never came
true, the impact of Malthus' essay has rippled through circles of economists
and demographers. Recently, with the doubling of the world's population
in the last fifty years, some economists have reopened the age old concern
of whether or not food supplies will be able to keep up with the growing
population. The truth is that these pessimistic claims become completely
unjustified when one looks at the history of the world since the time Malthus
wrote. In fact, despite rapidly growing populations, man/woman has been
able to overcome many limitations in agricultural production in order to
actually improve their well-being (Johnson, 2002). Understanding these trends
from the past and present will answer the question proposed by Malthus and
help to make predictions about the trends that lay ahead in the 21st century.
This paper makes a similar conclusion and presents a rather optimistic view
about food production meeting the demands of population growth. It is divided
into five sections. The first two sections approach the question about food
supply and population growth from a historical perspective and look at the
trends in food production from the time of Malthus up until the last fifty
years. The third section looks at changes within food supply in relation
to population densities in order to see how population growth affects food
production. The fourth section focuses on the current global issues that
have arisen from continually increasing the production of food. Finally
the fifth section presents different solutions that have been suggested
in order to deal with.the current issues that have resulted from meeting
the demands for increased food supply.
Early Historical Examples and the Law of Diminishing Returns:
Since the time Malthus wrote, the growth of the world's population has paralleled
improvements in life expectancy, infant mortality, per capita food consumption,
per capita real incomes etc. (Johnson 1997). The first echoes of concern
over a population outgrowing its own food supply took hold from reasoning
based on the theory of diminishing returns in the 18th century England.
Economists and demographers of the 18th and 19th centuries rationalized
that a finite amount of land would limit the amount of food that could be
produced. What they failed to see was how the use of knowledge and technology
could greatly expand the output capabilities of farmland. Both an increase
in population and the increase in per capita income that follows, result
in an increase in knowledge and technology. It is these increases in knowledge
and technology that dispel the law of diminishing returns. In fact, the
increase in productivity of land and labor, "… made possible the
industrial revolution and the rapid growth of real incomes and population
and urbanization that followed the mid 18th century (Johnson, 2002)."
In other words, the increase in population made it possible for the advancement
of knowledge and technology, which increased the productivity of the food
supply. Examples of these technological improvements include the tractor,
the reaper and the binder while the increases on knowledge took the form
new crop varieties as well as an understanding of fertilizers and pesticides
(Johnson, 2002). Agricultural yields have increased as the human population
has grown. It is interesting to note that while yields have increased, both
labor inputs for agriculture as well as prices for agricultural products
have decreased. With the aid of technology it has become easier and cheaper
to increase the food supply. This evidence proves that during the two-hundred
plus years following Malthus' prediction, the growing populations of the
world have actually aided in the development and improvement of people's
well-being.
Food Supply Trends 1950 to the Present:
A look back over the last 50 years provides insight into how the world has
responded to the latest population explosion. Global food production has,
on average, "… more than kept pace with population growth in recent
decades, and a diminishing proportion of the world's population are undernourished
(Kravdal, 2001)." During the second half of the 19th century, the population
explosion that occurred in countries throughout the world resulted in an
increased demand for food. During this time, the population of the developing
world increased by 84%, while per capita consumption increased by 27%. This
growth resulted in a 134% increase in food consumption (Bongaarts, 1996).
Food supply met the demands of the population explosion with the increase
of just a few supply factors. Most of the gains occurred by increasing the
overall amount of land cultivated, increasing the cropping frequency and
augmenting the average crop yields (Bongaarts, 1996). The larger crop yields,
which accounted for the majority of the increased food supply, were achieved
mainly by technological improvements brought about by the green revolution.
These most recent studies on population growth and food supply for the last
fifty years calculate the diet available to a population by the sum of domestic
food production, plus food aid and net imports (Kravdal, 2001). The quantity
of food that can be produced is determined by a number of factors including
soil quality, seed varieties, farming methods and the amount of cultivated
land being used. It also includes other food crops that are essential to
the human diet include roots, tubers, fruits, vegetables, oil crops and
sugar. The majority of all these crops are used for direct human consumption,
but a fair amount is also used to feed animals. Using these factors to determine
the calories per capita, it has been determined that the supply of food
calories per capita rose from 2420 kcal per day in 1958 to 2808 kcal in
1999 in developing countries (Gilland 2002). In other words, despite population
surges the average caloric intake has also managed to increase.
Even though the world has experienced its largest population increase during
the last half a century, the idea that population growth actually aids in
the development of food production still holds true. In one study countries
who have had a high population growth rate have managed to increase their
cereal yields more than other countries (Kravdal, 2001). The test indicated
that there is a small decrease in the area per head harvested in these areas.
This means that any combination of the following events could have resulted;
a large new area of cultivated land, more production dedicated to cereal
production than other agricultural crops or an increase in the actual cropping
frequency. The study concludes that there is a positive effect of population
growth on the development in cereal production. This applies to developing
countries in current times, but during the 19th and 18th centuries, as Johnson
points out, it was the developed countries that saw the greatest agricultural
supply increases from population growth (Johnson, 1997).
Population Densities:
Attention must be given to population density in order to understand how
the increase in food supply has accommodated the increase in population
growth. It is obvious that when a population increases, more food will be
demanded; but how do societies adapt to increasing population pressure?
To understand this relationship between population density and food supply
one study divided over 90 countries into three groups based on the number
of persons per hectare of potential arable land (Bogaarts, 1996). It revealed
that citizens had a greater caloric intake in countries with high density
populations than the caloric intake of citizens in low population density
countries. This trend is likely to occur because countries with a high population
density tend to also have higher levels of economic development.
The combined changes in food supply factors between 1962-1989 and the differences
in population density groups have happened for a number of reasons. First,
as mentioned before, the increase in population density has resulted in
increases in land cultivated, cropping frequency and crop yields (Kravdal,
2001). At the same time, income per capita has increased, which has caused
an increase in caloric intake while the proportion of crops directly consumed
has gone down as people with higher incomes decide to include more meat
into their diets. Finally these changes in food supplies have occurred because
of increases in food trade and the limited expansion of arable land (Kravdal,
2001).
Current Issues:
The increase in the world's food supply has not been without challenges.
Even though agriculture has successfully dealt with population growth, there
is still worry about the present and future of global food supply. First
it has been brought to the attention of many nations that responses to the
increase in the demand for food supply have resulted in many environmental
problems. Deforestation and threats to biodiversity have arisen as farmers
try to increase the amount of cultivatable land. At the same time, poor
agricultural practices have led to diminished soil quality and the depletion
of water resources. The need to increase crop yields has also increased
the use of pesticides and fertilizers, which create a whole slew of environmental
effects as well as the release of additional green house gases into the
atmosphere. The increased food supply has not been without consequences.
Despite increases in the global food supply during the last four decades,
undernutrition still remains a major issue. Today nearly 800 million people
continue to suffer from undernutrition in the developing world (Bongaarts,
1996). At the same time, over the last fifty years, the world has seen decreasing
food prices. If the prices have been falling the simple laws of supply and
demand would explain than malnutrition is not a product of global shortage.
The reason for these high numbers of malnourished people occurs because
poor countries lack the income to buy the available food supplies. In other
words the world faces big problem with the equity of food distribution.
Despite many great advances post Green Revolution, The food supply still
does not reach the right people in the correct quantities.
Solutions to today's issues:
Many reforms have to occur in order to combat the issues that have arisen
from the increases in global food supply. These reforms can be divided into
just four necessary changes that need to occur (Bongaarts). First, governments
of developing nations need to implement stronger policies that protect the
environments and help malnourished citizens. Second, there must be an increase
in the use of green revolution technology. Food supply can be stretched
even more to accommodate population increases if the irrigation techniques
and high yielding crop varieties that were developed during the green revolution
can be successfully implemented throughout the world. Third, increased rural
infrastructure will help to alleviate many of today's issues regarding efficiency.
Finally, in order to guarantee that progress continues to be made, more
money needs to be put into research and development.
Conclusion:
The race between food supply and population growth has not been lost. Pessimists
would argue that we have been losing the race because of the added environmental
stress, difficulties expanding agricultural land, shortages of water and
the growing problems with pest control. It is true that these issues have
arisen as a consequence of increasing the world's food supply, but the battle
is not over. Farmers in many areas still have relatively low crop yields
and many reserves of potentially arable land still exist in developing countries.
The increases in global food supply that have paralleled the dramatic increases
in the global population have caused problems, but the human race has overcome
many hurdles and continues to meet demands for world food supplies.
In order to assure a victory and guarantee that food production keeps up
with population growth the inefficiencies throughout the food production
and consumption chain must be eliminated. As he received his Nobel Prize
in 1972 Norman Borlaug summed up the issues of global food supply and population
growth when he said, "The Green Revolution has won a temporary success
in man's war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man breathing
space. If fully implemented, the Revolution can provide sufficient food
for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power
of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the
Green Revolution will be ephemeral only (Gilland, 2002)." He might
not be entirely right when he refers to human reproduction as a, "frightening
process," but the idea that humans need to become more responsible
with their relationship to the environment and their imprint on the world's
resources holds true today. Although we have won the battle between food
supply and population growth, we still need to take treatment of lands and
natural resources seriously (Johnson, 2002). Farmers need to continue being
educated and policies need to promote healthy practices as well as try to
eliminate issues of inequity and distribution.
Bongaarts, John, (1996), "Population Pressure and Food Supply in the
Developing World", in Population and Development Review, Vol.
22, No 3, September 1996, pp. 483-504.
Johnson, D. Gale, (1997), "On the Resurgent Population and Food Debate",
in the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Vol. 41, 1997, pp. 1-17.
Johnson, D. Gale, (2002), "The Declining Importance of Natural Resources:
Lessons From Agricultural Land", in Resource and Energy Economics,
vol. 24, pp. 157-171.
Kravdal, Oystein (2001), "Has Population Growth Restricted Improvements
in Food Availability per Head, 1970-95?" Population Studies
v55, n2 (July 2001): 105-117
Smith, Lisa Catherine and Lawrence Haddad, (2001), "How Important is
Improving Food Availability for Reducing child Malnutrition in Developing
Countries?" in Agricultural Economics, vol. 26, (2001), pp.
191-204.