Introduction:
Given current growth rates and demographic trends, the United Nations Population
Division estimates that by the year 2050, world population will surpass
9 billion people (Gilland 2002). When so many of the world's current population
of over 6 billion people are faced with hunger and malnutrition, it is important
to ask if the world will be able to feed an additional 3 billion in the
near future. In order to properly answer this question, we will need to
define the concept of adequately "feeding the world". One measure
of this the idea of food security: the uninterrupted access to sufficient
caloric intake (Brown and Kane 1994). Another is the achievement of a satisfactory
average diet in terms of nutrition (Gilland 2002). Both of these concepts,
essentially quantity and quality, need to be taken into account when answering
the aforementioned question. Based on many types of data and the trends
derived from them, we can realistically imagine a world that will be able
to provide adequate and nutritious sustenance to 9 billion people, provided
that wise policy decisions are made towards this end.
This paper is divided into four sections. The first section will examine the natural resources of the planet, specifically arable land and access to fresh water, and the extent to which they will play a role in the production of further food supplies. The second section will examine the technological advances that have contributed to increasing crop yields, and to what extent future technological advances will have on feeding a growing population. The third section will look into consumption preferences and resulting production and nutrition effects. The fourth and final section will detail aspects of food security pertinent to population growth estimates.
Natural Resources:
Of obvious importance to the study of whether or not the world will be able
to feed a population 50% larger than current estimates is the amount of
arable land available for food production. It is likely that little more
than 39 million hectares will be added to the total land being used for
cereal production in the next 20 years (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). The
majority of this land will be located in developing countries as they try
to expand production to meet the population increases that they can expect
in the following decades (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). Physical limits
of arable land, coupled with the increased demand for land for purposes
other than agriculture will ensure that most of the increase in crop production
will not be due to expansion of cultivated lands (Rosegrant and Sombilla
1997).
It is much more likely that increases in global crop yield will fuel the increase in crop production (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997), (Gilland 2002). Global crop yield growth rates are expected to decline somewhat in the next two decades, yet importantly, still remain positive (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). Crop yield growth is predicted to decline in both developed and developing countries, though will still remain higher in developing countries than in developed ones (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). It has been noted that over the past 50 years, the global cereal yield increases as world population increases, indicating that additional future growth is likely as well (Gilland 2002). The vast majority of this crop growth increase will take place in developing countries, where annual cereal production is expected to double in the next 50 years (Gilland 2002).
While fields can be temporarily coaxed into producing crops above sustainable levels by overplowing, the result of this practice is problems in the long run including erosion and soil nutrient deprivation (Gilland 2002). It will be tempting to resort to these types of practices in the future as population grows and demand increases, and it will take the resolve of policy makers with the foresight to recognize the downfall of this strategy to limit these practices in order to ensure that the destruction of this valuable commodity does not jeopardize the world food supply (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997).
Increasing annual crop yields are critical to ensuring that additional food will be available from an effectively unchanging cultivation area, but without the maintenance of plentiful supplies of fresh water, no growth will be possible. Fresh water scarcity has been noted as one of the most important obstacles to overcome in ensuring agricultural productivity in the future (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997), (Gilland 2002). Overall demand for water is expected to increase by 35% in the next 20 years, and will likely continue to rise beyond that in subsequent decades, especially in less developed countries (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). The projected increasing demand for water in domestic and industrial settings will also further limit the availability of water for use in agriculture. Policy implementations will be key in ensuring that water resources are properly allocated in order to meet the demands of all sectors (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). It has also noted that severe drought can have a major effect on crop yields which further necessitates the presence of wise policy making cases to maintain crop yields during times of scarcity (Brown and Kane 1994).
Technological Advances:
Technological advances are a critical to increasing global annual crop yields.
One of the most important advances to this end was irrigation, though it
is still estimated to be at most 45% efficient (Gilland 2002). This is one
important area that remains to be improved upon, especially considering
that importance of water availability previously discussed. The use of fertilizers
is equally important in continuing to promote sustained growth of crop yields
(Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). The nitrogen based chemicals that enable
drastically improved crop yields require significant amounts of energy to
produce, but not amounts that are ever predicted to affect the ubiquity
of fertilizer use (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). The 3 percent annual grain
output expansion observed between 1950 and 1984 is largely credited to the
expanding role of nitrogen-based fertilizers in agriculture (Brown and Kane
1994). The result has been somewhat less dramatic in recent years and some
argue that returns of additional fertilizer use will continue to diminish
(Brown and Kane 1994), (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997), (Gilland 2002). Despite
these doubts, there is still much room for developing countries to take
full advantage of the benefits of fertilizers. The annual cereal yield is
still significantly larger in more developed countries (3700 kg/ha) than
in less developed countries (2770 kg/ha) (Gilland 2002).
The use of biotechnology may also contribute significantly to crop yield growth as the marginal benefit of more and more fertilizer continues to decline. Improved resistance to pests and disease decreases the need for harmful fungicides and insecticides and can improve crop yields while simultaneously lowering production costs (Gilland 2002). While the use of genetically modified organisms has drawn criticism, it is likely that it will prove to be an increasingly important aspect of technological advancement towards increasing crop yield.
Consumption Preferences:
As we propose increasing the food supply in order to accommodate an additional
3 billion people, it is important to consider the quality of the new food
produced. It has been recommended that at least half of one's dietary protein
should come from animal sources (Gilland 2002). This ensures adequate bioavaliable
minerals and B-type vitamins in the diet, and provides a better amino acid
composition than is available with most vegetable or cereal based diets
(Gilland 2002). Furthermore, there is a high correlation between countries
where per capita consumption of animal protein is low and general malnourishment
(Gilland 2002). Currently more than half of the world's population does
not attain the recommended 40g of animal protein per day and this problem
is likely to be exacerbated by increasing world population by 50%
At the crux of this dilemma is the fact that among almost anyone who can afford it, preferences lie in meat-rich diets, but the conversion of feed grain by livestock to animal protein is only 17% efficient (Gilland 2002). This means that net food output from lands used to grow feed grain and raise livestock is less than 1/5 of that which would be produced if the grain went to feeding the human population. Health risks are associated with diets rich in the saturated fats found in meat and thus, it would seem to be mutually beneficial to limit the amount of meat eaten in more developed countries like the United States and France, in order to either increase grain or animal exports to less developed countries. This type of sweeping change away from meat-based meals would not be popular or easy to enforce, but might be necessary in the future as the world's population continues to grow.
Food Security:
As previously described by Brown and Kane, the concept of food security
is a good marker for the availability of food in general (Brown and Kane
1994). World stocks of grain are useful in measuring the rate at which food
is being consumed versus produced. Declining stocks are indicative of decreasing
per person grain production and vice versa (Brown and Kane 1994). If population
growth outpaces food production, then the decreasing reserves cause prices
to rise, sometimes double or even triple (Brown and Kane 1994). Because
there is such a long and voluminous supply route leading from source to
destination of exported grain, much of the carryover stock is already in
transport (Brown and Kane 1994). As grain export continues to grow from
more developed countries to more the rapidly growing less developed countries,
the amount of grain in carryover stocks will increasingly reside in transport
and "real" stockpiles may decrease. It will be necessary to closely
monitor the situation and preferable to build up stocks of grain now, if
possible, in order to avoid shortages in the future.
One consideration affecting food security in the 21st century is the increasing disparity in wealth between the richest and poorest people of the world (Brown and Kane 1994). This scenario causes a fiscally-perceived lack of demand for food in less wealthy parts of the world with the consequence being that food production does not rise to meet the needs of people who cannot afford to feed themselves (Rosegrant and Sombilla 1997). This problem is currently responsible for much of the hunger observed in world, and will continue to persist as long as LDC's remain in a less-developed state. With their transition to more-developed status though, they will not only significantly reduce population growth, but will be able to "demand" food from other countries with the new found wealth brought on by demographic dividends.
Concluding Remarks:
While current institutions and preferences may need to shift and adapt in
the future, there is no technical reason why the world could not feed a
population of 9 billion. It will take planning and forethought to ensure
that mass famine does not occur and malnutrition does not persist, but it
will be possible to support a 50% population increase. Many of the technological
advances necessary for this process may not presently be available to all
nations, or even exist yet, but it is completely rational to believe that
the world will be able to adequately accommodate the population of the future.
Lester Brown and Hal Kane, "Food Insecurity" in Full House, Reassessing the Earth's Population Carrying Capacity, W. W. Norton Company, New York, 1994, Ch 2, pp. 37-48.
Gilland, Bernard (2002), "World Population and Food Supply: Can Food Production Keep Pace with Population Growth in the Next Half-Century?", Food Policy v27, n1 (February 2002): 47-63 .
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sombilla, Mercedita A. (1997) "Critical Issues Suggested by Trends in Food, Population, and the Environment to the Year 2020" American Journal of Agricultural Economics v79, n5 (1997): 1467-1470.