Does population growth inevitably lead to land degradation? Or, in observing case studies in Africa and Asia, has it improved the quality of lands? Contrary to Malthusian thought, an increase in population does not portend environmental and economic doom. Evidence from various case studies suggests that farmers have adjusted their agricultural techniques, societal norms, and investment outlooks to the new realities of population growth.
Mary Tiffen and Michael Mortimore (1994) discuss the role of innovation
in investment and advancements in human capital as it relates to population
growth in smallholder agriculture. They argue that an increase in population
density can actually generate processes, which improve the environment as
well as increase income per capita. Their thesis is in direct contrast to
the pessimism of neo-Malthusians who content that "resources are limited,
and therefore, more people, anywhere, mean disaster." (Tiffen, 997)
Tiffen and Mortimore's base their findings according to the theories of
Ester Boserup (1965). Boserup argued that farmers with an increased need
for food and land shortage would adopt intensification techniques:
[These techniques] combine more labor with the land resource, both to make
permanent land improvements, (investment) and to raise output by more frequent
cultivation accompanied by more careful husbandry (the recurrent activity).
Additional people provided both the stimulus and the means to new types
of land management. Her emphasis was on endogenous technology generation
and the growth of internal markets and specialization. (Tiffen 997-998)
(Emphasis own.)
The necessities of an increasing population and the opportunities is creates through greater contacts with markets and information lead to adjustments on the part of farmers which result in more efficient and environmentally sound use of the land.
The key to such optimistic outcomes is investment. Capital formation and
technological progress is how industrial output kept ahead of population
growth, agricultural output would benefit in much the same way. Tiffen and
Mortimore note, however, that informal agricultural investments are rarely
included in national statistics. They are, however, quite significant in
smallholder economies. Research into new technologies has often been hailed
for its many benefits, but as the authors note, "[t]o be effective
[], the fruits of official research have to be embodied in investments made
by private farmers." (Tiffen, 998) The investments of farmers include
new technology in higher value crops and livestock, improvements in the
land, and new agricultural equipment. These investments must also include
maintenance costs as well as organizational improvements and administrative
skill in executing necessary changes.
In a study conducted over 60 years, from 1930-1990 in the Machakos district
of Kenya Tiffen and Mortimore find that increasing population density need
not generate economic and environmental disaster. They cite that "higher
density is not associated with lower growth except perhaps at the very highest
densities, and low densities clearly are associated with low economic growth."
(Tiffen, 999) One particular means of avoiding land degradation was the
terracing employed by the farmers:
Terracing, in addition to conserving soil, conserves water, and in the conditions
of Machakos, makes it possible to grow at least in some parts of the district,
higher value crops such as coffee, fruits and vegetables, as well as to
improve the yield of grains and pulses. (Tiffen 999)
Terracing is an example of new technology and fixed capital. In fact, those terraces constructed by compulsory communal labor as part of government programs were not maintained. Farmers soon came to realize that a specific type of terrace, fanya juu, lasted longer and was well worth the greater initial labor costs and maintenance. Since then, farmers have converted all the terraces to fanya juu terraces and reaped the benefits of their local knowledge. This local initiative has had significant positive repercussions for land improvement in Machakos.
Mary Tiffen, Michael Mortimore, and Francis Gichuki (1994) emphasize the
significance of a certain dimension of 'technology' as they perceive it.
The most influential aspect of technology is not the 'invention' aspect,
but the "change, adoption and adaptation…Technology development
is linked to education in the widest sense of anything which improves knowledge
and organizational capabilities." (Tiffen, Mortimore, & Gichuki,
264) Part of this technology is exhibited in farmers' methods of intensification.
It is the continuation of it, however, that demonstrates their willingness
to "operate with long- as well as short-term objectives in view. No
support has been found that, in a risky environment, poor farmers discount
the future against the present, destroying their resources in order to survive."
(Tiffen, Mortimore, & Gichuki, 270)
Agricultural technology, however, is not the only means by which farmers
insure their livelihood. The diversified economy of which, by 1982, non-farm
businesses and wages comprised 40% while rural incomes and agricultural
output comprised 51% supported further means of investment. (Tiffen, 1000)
Most investments are financed by the remittances or savings of non-farm
jobs. The 'Kenyan farmers' investment strategy' is such that investment
in education is paramount, followed by non-farm businesses, and finally,
investment in agriculture. The reasoning is that investment in education
and non-farm business curtail the risk involved in investing in agriculture
alone or first and foremost. These non-farm investments "provide a
hedge against agricultural disaster." (Tiffen, 1002)
The direct consequences of an increase in population density increase per
capita income. As Boserup argues, higher population density reduces the
costs of interaction: "more efficient transport, the growth of small
towns and labor specialization." (Tiffen, 1002) Machakos did not fit
this bill exactly. Rather some of the extra labor opted for temporary migration
work, some developed new farms "using appropriate extensive methods
for the settlement of a new area with low population density", and
finally, more individuals of the 15-24 ages group were invested in education
"to qualify for higher rewards to their labor in nonfarm work."
(Tiffen, 1002-1004) Furthermore, the greater the population density the
greater number of people there are to come up with new ideas and the easier
it is to share those ideas.
The government is instrumental in promoting these positive effects of population
growth. By building more and better roads it further decreases the costs
of transport, and thus increases the instances of knowledge exchange. It
must also provide the means for effective education such as teacher training
programs. The effects are both positive and significant:
Higher per capita incomes and higher value output per person engaged in
agriculture have come via improved market access (by means of an improved
but still low quality road system)…Market connections in conjunction
with travel and education have not only brought in more technical information,
the have also stimulate new aspirations, demand for local services and manufactures,
and the information flows that enable these to be met. (Tiffen, Mortimore,
& Gichuki, 269)
Nevertheless, it is clear that the farmers themselves have been responsible for their improved conditions. The results of the study further indicate that "[t]he people who have the best knowledge of the changing costs of land and labor and of the market opportunities for products and labor are the inhabitants, for the changes may be slow and often imperceptible to outsiders." (Tiffen, Mortimore, & Gichuki, 273) These farmers of Machakos have maximized on the opportunities afforded them through the increasing population density; they, however, "seem always to have emphasized the importance of government investment in schools and roads, but political structures have not given them much influence over the strategic decisions on state investments." (Tiffen, Mortimore, & Gichuki, 273) Government policy can further encourage the apparent opportunities that arise from an increasing population density; it need only work constructively with the local farmers to bolster the already apparent successes in the improvement of quality of lands.
Yet land improvement need not stop there. Valentina Mazzucato and David
Niemeijer (2002) focus on the role of informal local institutions asking,
"How do local informal institutions mediate the relationship between
society and the environment, and what effects do they have?" (Mazzucato,
1) They argue that "local informal institutions, in the form of customs,
norms, and networks, affect the way resources are valued and allocated and,
as such, are the most immediate mechanisms through which people mediate
their relationship with the environment." (Mazzucato, 3) The necessary
changes these institutions have undergone have allowed these farmers to
meet their production needs and have important repercussions for environmental
sustainability.
'Bush camps' offer a means of cultivating land that has otherwise been considered
too removed from the village. The increase in population densities has compelled
many farmers to spread out farther into the countryside, at least for the
6-7 month agricultural season. The growing scarcity of resources is thus
curtailed by cultivating this land that is farther removed from the village,
but also, with the 'camps,' reducing the trek from home to field. Bush camps
also allow farmers to take advantage of the variation in rainfall, reducing
their agricultural risks by not being limited to one particular portion
of land that may experience a shortage in rainfall at one time or another.
Borrowing land is another means of managing the effects of population density.
The rights to a piece of land are given to those that cultivate an area
not yet cultivated. As a growing population inhabits the area borrowing
fallow land from those who have accumulated much of it is an acceptable
option. The mobility of the crop cultivation system as a result of borrowing
fallow land and bush camps has "given people access to land fit for
cultivation while enabling them to leave land fallow where it needs to be
left to regenerate, despite less land being available." (Mazzucato,
9)
Changes in the practice of work parties exemplify farmers' adjustments to
the needs of a greater population. Traditionally these events were held
primarily for social or political purposes as a means of establishes one's
prestige within the community. Fellow villagers were invited to work in
the host's field in exchange for a meal and/or drinks. These large work
parties were less effective as a means of production than as a social benefit.
Given the rising population and the need for more production, however, work
parties have grown much smaller and their purposes more economically based.
The time that farmers save given the extra labor makes investment a viable
option. It "allows farmers to use their knowledge of cultivation practices,
their soils, and landraces on which these measures are based, to capacity.
Thus, as a result of having enough labor available, farmers have been able
to invest in land-enhancing measures, rather than have to cultivate more
land per person to feed their families." (Mazzucato, 13)
Another societal change involves the time at which it becomes acceptable
for a married woman to cultivate her own fields. Traditionally women could
only grow Bambara groundnuts and okra if their children had died. With time
and the growing need for more production these restrictions are virtually
non-existent.
Borrowing agricultural equipment and obtaining a diversity of crops have
also allowed farmers to deal with the increasing scarcity of resources.
A farmer's limited income need no longer be an impediment to accessing farm
capital and thus reducing his capacity for production. Furthermore, a variety
of crops allows farmers to plant whatever species where appropriate based
on soil moisture. The diversity lessens the depletion of nutrients in the
soil.
These changes in informal institutions are not only the result of population
density as Boserup famously contends, but, Mazzucato and Niemeijer add,
also as a result of "colonial policies and increased contact with the
developed countries through trade, business, and development projects. Moreover,
"[t]hese various sources of change suggest, differently from Boserup's
theory of population thresholds, that adjustment processes do not occur
only at certain crisis points in which population levels have reached and
unmanageable threshold, but continuously and in reaction to a multiplicity
of factors." (Mazzucato, 18) Given the continuity of such change the
rate of population growth carries more significance than the quantitative
numbers of population densities. Presumably, at much faster rates of growth
it would be more difficult for informal institutions to adjust in time.
Stein T. Holden and Prem L. Sankhayan (1998) conduct similar studies of
population growth effects on the environment in Himachal Pradesh (HP) between
1970 and 1997. Again, their study attempts to establish whether the Boserupian
or Malthusian theories hold true for this particular case. It appears that
during the past 50 years as population densities have rapidly increased
so too have the living standards. The "[d]iverse agro-climatic conditions
afford excellent opportunities for the production of a number of cereal
crops, such as maize, paddy, wheat, barley, and horticultural and cash crops,
such as apples and potatoes." (Holden, 281) Rapid population growth
has instigated a particular rise in the high yielding crops, including wheat,
maize, and paddy. The use of fertilizers and chemicals has also been on
the rise. The technologies of the Green Revolution were adopted, though
much later than in other parts of India. Nevertheless, the "impact
is a reduction of the pressure on the land resources and a higher capacity
to absorb continued population growth in terms of providing food for self-sufficiency
within the state." (Holden, 284) Technological equipment such as tractors
is also instrumental as they replace the need for bullocks thus reducing
the demand for fodder and the animal population pressure as well. Finally,
the "agricultural inputs markets are developing fast and their imperfections
are declining, facilitating agricultural intensification and diversification."
(Holden, 287) The available agricultural resources are certainly capable
of withstanding a population increase.
Environmental sustainability is of course a different story. Deforestation
is a major problem in the area. "[A] great deal of thinning of forests,
whether authorized of illegal, is still going on to meet the increasing
needs of timber, fuelwood, fodder, packing cases for horticultural produce,
medicine, etc. Agricultural expansion is thus not a primary cause of land
degradation." (Holden, 289) Fruit orchards, however, have expanded
in the last 30-40 years as a result of clearing forests. Nonetheless, the
production of fruit provides "high value and profit per unit of land";
the need for more detrimental natural resource extraction activities has
presumably been reduced. (Holden 291) Holden and Sankhayan conclude that
agricultural expansion is not the primary threat to the environment, rather
it is livestock population pressures resulting in deforestation, overgrazing,
and erosion. In fact, "through heavy investments in infrastructure
and agricultural research [Himachal Pradesh] has managed to change some
of its major disadvantages (as compared to other states of India) into advantages."
(Holden, 296) Furthermore, given the "'high trust society'" of
the region economic development programs have been far more effective in
reducing poverty by offering off-farm employment. This is inevitably beneficial
to the environment as it avoids the need of the poor to over-exploit their
natural resources.
The results of these cross country studies suggest that indeed population
growth has improved the quality of lands in Africa and Asia. Farmers and
their communities have adjusted to greater demands of production whether
it is through technological means or changes in informal institutions or
new a new outlook in their investment strategies. It seems that Boserupian
development essentially still rings true: greater population densities generate
greater markets for diversification and specialization. Most importantly,
these greater markets exhibit endogenous growth in technology, which further
promotes environmentally sustainable means of agriculture. Rapid population
growth can go hand in hand with increased standards of living so long as
the beneficial opportunities it offers are developed to their greatest positive
capacity.
Tiffen, Mary and Michael Mortimore, (1994) "Malthus Controverted: The
Role of Capital and Technology in Growth and Environmental Recovery in Kenya",
in World Development, Vol. 22, No. 7, July 1994, pp. 997-1010.
Tiffen, Mary and Michael Mortimore and Francis Gichuki, (1994) "Population
Growth and Environmental Degradation: Revisiting the Theoretical Framework"
in More People Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya, by
Mary Tiffen and Michael Mortimore and Francis Gichuki , John Wiley and Sons,
New York, 1994, Chapter 16, pp. 261-274.
Mazzucato, Valentina; Niemeijer, David (2002), "Population Growth and
the Environment in Africa: Local Informal Institutions, the Missing Link",
Economic Geography v78, n2 (April 2002): 171-193.
Holden, Stein T.; Sankhayan, Prem L. (1998), "Population Pressure,
Agricultural Change and Environmental Degradation in the Western Himalayan
Region of India", Forum for Development Studies v0, n2 (1998):
271-300.