Over the last few decades, as global concerns for forests degradation grow, increasing amounts of studies of forest cover fluctuations have occurred. These studies have been conducted by academic researchers, international conservation and forestry agencies, and national, governmental organizations. The basis for most analysis centers on neo-Malthusian assumptions regarding population and forest degradation relationships (Leach/Fairhead, 2000). The neo-Malthusian approach carries with it a direct link between forest degradation and "images of rapid population growth from an initially low baseline, swelled by immigration into forest areas…supported by…accounts which assume that expanding farming populations progressively degrade forest land and resources" (Leach/Fairhead, 2000).
It is important to under stand that what determines deforestation relies
heavily on changes of land usage. Logging and the gathering of fuel wood
will remove some of our forests, but regrowth is likely to occur. In order
for a region to "remain deforested, it must be profitable to convert
the land" to sustainable agriculture (Cropper/Griffiths/Mani 1999).
In addition, there is a weld held belief that growing crops to cater to
a larger and wealthier population will have a negative influence on global
forest cover.
This paper argues that neo-Malthusian belief distorts the actual relationship
between a growing population and global forest cover. In addition, this
paper explores the variables linked to a growing global population and their
effects on the forests around the world. This paper will be composed of
four sections. In the first section, theories that counter popular belief
that rapid population growth will ultimately lead to rapid forest decline
are presented while using West Africa as an example. Section two explores
the projected global use of cropland to feed more and wealthier up to the
year 2050 and its affect on forest degradation. Section three presents a
case study of Thailand to illuminate discrepancies in forest degradation
that have occurred in two separate regions of the country. Section four
will present concluding arguments.
I. THEORIES OF RESTORATION
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (2000), in the last few
decades about fifty countries world-wide have documented gains in the area
and volume of their forests (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001). Most of these gains
have occurred in industrialized countries and have "encouraged the
vision of a great restoration of nature in the form of a spreading forest
canopy" (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001). In addition, forest degradation has
occurred at a decreasing rate in under-developed regions of the world. This
is why one must be wary of fully accepting the neo-Malthusian assumption.
The neo-Malthusian "narratives obscure widespread processes by which
people have enriched the landscapes with trees, and in which the peopling
of a landscape has sometimes meant an expansion of tree and forest cover
where the opposite was assumes" (Leach/Fairhead, 2000).
Deforestation analysis in West Africa will be used to show that evidence
exists from local communities "throughout the West African forest zone
of processes by which rural inhabitants through their farming and everyday
activities increase the density of woody vegetation and encourage the formation
of forest in fallow and savannah" (Leach/Fairhead, 2000). Three key
processes in the region have occurred which encourages the assumption that
an increase in population in the region will lead to an increase in forest
cover. The fist process in the region attributed to forest expansion is
related to farming practices which have "modified soils and related
ecological processes" through technological advancements (Leach/Fairhead,
2000). The second key process involves "the creation of 'islands' of
forest in savanna, or of denser, high forest in bush fallow" (Leach/Fairhead,
2000). This process is a very common occurrence of newly settled regions
across the West African forest/transition zones. The third occurring process
deals with the planting and transplanting of trees in fallows and grasslands
throughout the region. These three processes have led to an incline in forest
cover in some areas of West Africa which has caused an overall decreasing
rate of deforestation. These processes are also not region specific and
have occurred throughout the globe.
II. CROPLAND EFFECTS ON FOREST DEGREDATION
Most of the academic discourse surrounding forest degradation has revolved
around the expansion of cropland across the globe. The key question that
economists and environmentalists attempt to tackle is" "How much
will growing crops to feed more and wealthier people encroach on forests
between now and 2050?" (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001) In order to attempt
to answer this question, a quite complex socioeconomic analysis of the world
needs to be conducted. Factors such as population growth rate, income per
capita, the proportion of income devoted to food, the yield ratio, and the
non-food ratio (which characterizes the land that farmers use to grow crops
such as cotton and tobacco). Although an extreme assumption, smart adjustments
to these factors at different times and places throughout the world in the
next fifty years "could enable humanity to spare, say, 500 million
ha…" (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001) For example, if the appetite ratio
(the proportion of income devoted to food) falls in the developing world
as they acquire more capital as the present rich borrow a "lighter
diet" then a decrease in cropland is likely to occur in various regions
of the globe. It is even projected that more than half of this decrease
in cropland would occur in the developing world (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001).
One characteristic that has had an effect on the amount of land devoted
to farming has been the world demand for meat. Currently, the demand for
meat is the highest it has ever been and is likely to increase over the
next fifty years (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001). The increase in demand for meat
has caused an increase in demand to feed the animals. "Crops encompass
corn to feed cows, pigs, and chickens as well as wheat, rice, and vegetables
to feed people directly" (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001).
However, what is interesting is that through technological advancements,
individual croplands are receiving greater yields than ever before. In the
highly concentrated farming regions of the developing world, a 2.2% annual
increase in yields is only going to cause cropland expansion in these regions
to increase at an annual rate of .4% (Waggoner/Ausubel 2001). These greater
yields and refined crop management techniques are great factors that will
read to overall cropland global shrinkage in the near future. In return,
it is expected that this decrease in cropland will lead to a forest restoration
process throughout the world.
III. NORTH v. SOUTH THAILAND
In a study of Thailand from 1976-1989, researchers attempted to find out
why two regions of the country were facing deforestation at different rates
by analyzing "the role of population pressures in explaining land clearing"
(Cropper/Griffiths/Mani 1999). The study found that different types of agriculture
lead to different types of forest degradation associated with different
population pressures. The northern region of Thailand consisted of many
small farms and subsistence agriculture regions. The southern region consisted
of large commercial farming regions. Commercial farms were able to preserve
better soil quality which allowed them to receive greater yields. Road building
also played a large role in the southern part of the country. A "10%
increase in road density over the period of the study reduced forest cover
by almost 15%" (Cropper/Griffiths/Mani 1999). What we can learn from
this study is that road building and different types of agriculture lead
to different rates of deforestation in the developed and the developing
world. The researchers in this study proposed a few theories that could
decrease the rate of deforestation in the region. It is suggested that "expanding
income-earning opportunities outside of the agricultural sector may help",
however this affect will be marginal. In Thailand, logging was banned in
1989. They also suggest that a decrease in the rate of road building will
promote a slower rate of degradation. However, with growing populations,
this can be a hard task to attempt (Cropper/Griffiths/Mani 1999).
In conclusion, academic researchers, international conservation and forestry
agencies, and national/ governmental organizations hold mixed theories about
the future of our world's forests. Empirical evidence suggests that although
global population is going to increase heavily in the next fifty years,
it is likely that there will also be an increase in forest growth due to
better technology, better efficiency, and more supplied labor. The long
term effects of climate changes, land erosion, and large amounts of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere may change this outlook, however, it is uncertain
what the magnitude of the effect will be. The change in diet and the greater
yields in croplands around the world have led to a decrease in global cropland
which has led to forest restoration. The bottom line is that a great reforestation
movement will probably be realized in the next fifty years to come.
Cropper, Maureen; Griffiths, Charles; Mani, Muthukumara (1999), "Roads,
Population Pressures, and Deforestation in Thailand, 1976-1989", Land
Economics v75, n1 (February 1999): 58-73.
Leach, Melissa and James Fairhead, "Challenging Neo-Malthusian deforestation Analyses in West Africa's Dynamic Forest Landscapes" in Population and Development Review, Vol. 26, No. 1, March 2000, pp. 17-43.
Waggoner, Paule E. and Jesse H. Ausubel, "How Much Will Feeding
More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?, in Population and Development
Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, June 2001, pp. 239-257.